Hatayspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 2.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 2.095 / away 1.006. Data: 0 Hatayspor games / 0 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 59% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 14%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Hatayspor (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 59% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Hatayspor 2.05 / Kasımpaşa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 2.095 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kasımpaşa xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 59% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.77
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.03
0.98
Kasımpaşa xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
13%
7.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
2%
53.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.98 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Pre-Season
Kasımpaşa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 2.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 59% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 14%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.