Hatayspor 2-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 5W 1D 2L across 8 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Hatayspor's 2.00 PPG return is 0.62 points per game ahead of Gaziantep FK's 1.38 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Gaziantep FK 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 2.16 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.207 / defence 1.169 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.682 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.139. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Hatayspor games / 8 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 66% | Draw 19% | Gaziantep FK 15%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Gaziantep FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hatayspor (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 75% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 66% | Draw 19% | Gaziantep FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Hatayspor 2.16 / Gaziantep FK 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.207 / def 1.169 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.682 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Gaziantep FK xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Hatayspor 2 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 66% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.21) and Gaziantep FK's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.68x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.16
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.06
0.91
Gaziantep FK xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
12%
8.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
58.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.91 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hatayspor by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gaziantep FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Gaziantep FK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 75%, Gaziantep FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hatayspor and 50% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hatayspor's games and 50% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hatayspor's matches and 50% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 2.16 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.91 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.21 / defence 1.17 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.68 / defence 1.49, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 66% | Draw 19% | Gaziantep FK 15%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.