Hatayspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hatayspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hatayspor at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have the stronger record — 5 wins to Hatayspor's 0, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Hatayspor 2–4 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 40% versus Fenerbahçe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 64% | Fenerbahçe 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hatayspor surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.95 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.986 / defence 1.083 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.572 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.173. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.655, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hatayspor's projected output down. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.572, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 63 games and Fenerbahçe's last 63.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 15% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 59%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 6.83 | Draw 3.83 | Fenerbahçe 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 90% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 15% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Hatayspor 0.95 / Fenerbahçe 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.986 / def 1.083 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.572 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Hatayspor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 15% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.57x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 63 games and Fenerbahçe's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
15%
6.83
26%
3.83
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.94
2.00
Fenerbahçe xG
6.83
15%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
2%
50.32
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hatayspor and 2.00 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 63 games, going 12W 16D 35L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.38 PPG from 63 outings (47W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 8W 11D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.45 points per game from their last 31 away games (24W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.49 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Hatayspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 12W 16D 35L in their last 63 games (0.83 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 47W 9D 7L in their last 63 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.13 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-0 Hatayspor on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 May 2025: Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 55%, Fenerbahçe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hatayspor and 58% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 42%; Hatayspor have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 48% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hatayspor's matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 0-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.95 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.00 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.57 / defence 0.66, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 15% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 59%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 64%, Fenerbahçe 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.