Hatayspor 0-3 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Hatay Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fatih Karagümrük are 0.80 PPG clear of Hatayspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Hatayspor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 48% versus Fatih Karagümrük 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 61% | Fatih Karagümrük 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.06 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.658 / defence 1.191 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.220 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.267. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Hatayspor games / 64 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 22% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 56%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 22% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Hatayspor 1.06 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.658 / def 1.191 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.220 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Fatih Karagümrük xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 22% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.66) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.22x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
22%
4.63
23%
4.40
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.84
Fatih Karagümrük xG
4.63
22%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
3%
29.21
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.84 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 21W 13D 30L from 64 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 21L across 64 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.42 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 14W 9D 8L from 31 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 10W 8D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.56 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 30L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 24W 19D 21L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 12 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
2
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 58%, Fatih Karagümrük 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Hatayspor and 64% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hatayspor's games and 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Hatayspor's matches and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.06 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.84 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.66 / defence 1.19 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 22% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 56%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 61%, Fatih Karagümrük 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.19 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.