Hatayspor 3-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Başakşehir at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Başakşehir — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 0, Başakşehir 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 53% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 57% | Başakşehir 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.90 xG and Başakşehir 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.875 / defence 1.005 | Başakşehir attack 0.862 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.346. Başakşehir's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Hatayspor games / 49 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 28% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 42%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Hatayspor 60% | Başakşehir 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 7 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 28% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Hatayspor 0.90 / Başakşehir 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.875 / def 1.005 | Başakşehir attack 0.862 / def 0.682 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Başakşehir xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 November 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Hatayspor 3 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 28% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hatayspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
28%
3.58
30%
3.31
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.06
1.17
Başakşehir xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.8 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.17 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 9D 22L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 26W 10D 13L from 49 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.47 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 18W 9D 22L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 26W 10D 13L in their last 49 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.78 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 61%, Başakşehir 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hatayspor) and 44% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hatayspor's games and 56% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Hatayspor's recent games and 44% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Başakşehir finished level at 3-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.90 xG and Başakşehir 1.17 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Başakşehir attack 0.86 / defence 0.68, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 28% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 57%, Başakşehir 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.