Hatayspor 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Hatay Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 7 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hatayspor have posted 3W 4D 3L at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Hatayspor's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Antalyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 53% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 58% | Antalyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.59 xG and Antalyaspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.936 / defence 1.087 | Antalyaspor attack 0.896 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.380. Data: 54 Hatayspor games / 53 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 43% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 43% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Hatayspor 1.59 / Antalyaspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.936 / def 1.087 | Antalyaspor attack 0.896 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Antalyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 43% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.94) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.90x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
43%
2.34
25%
3.95
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.94
1.34
Antalyaspor xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.34 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 11D 23L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 21W 12D 20L from 53 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.42 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 21W 12D 20L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.72 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
2
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 64%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hatayspor) and 48% (Antalyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hatayspor's matches and 48% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hatayspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.59 xG and Antalyaspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Antalyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 43% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 32%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 58%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.28 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.