Hatayspor 1-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hatayspor face Adana Demirspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Monday 23 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hatayspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hatayspor at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hatayspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.40 for Adana Demirspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Adana Demirspor edge it 2 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Hatayspor 1–0 Adana Demirspor — a Hatayspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 57% versus Adana Demirspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 47% | Adana Demirspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.56 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.755 / defence 1.012 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.779 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.166. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.56. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hatayspor's projected output up. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 53 games and Adana Demirspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 50% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.99 | Draw 3.38 | Adana Demirspor 4.95. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 23 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 50% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Hatayspor 1.56 / Adana Demirspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.755 / def 1.012 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.779 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Adana Demirspor xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 23 December 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 50% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.76) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.78x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 53 games and Adana Demirspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.38
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
Adana Demirspor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.92 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 10W 20D 23L from 53 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 26L across 53 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.92 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 8W 10D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 1W 12D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Hatayspor (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 20D 23L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 11W 16D 26L in their last 53 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.31 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Hatayspor, 65% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hatayspor) and 54% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hatayspor's games and 65% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Hatayspor's recent games and 54% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 77% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Hatayspor 1-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.56 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 50% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 20%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Adana Demirspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 47%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.94 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.