Giresunspor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çotanak Stadyumu plays host to Giresunspor versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Giresunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Çotanak Stadyumu, Giresunspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Giresunspor, 1.50 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Giresunspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Giresunspor half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 50% versus Başakşehir 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 42% | Başakşehir 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.921 / defence 1.012 | Başakşehir attack 0.949 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.344. Data: 36 Giresunspor games / 36 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 39%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 60% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Giresunspor 1.09 / Başakşehir 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.921 / def 1.012 | Başakşehir attack 0.949 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Başakşehir xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Giresunspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Başakşehir?
Giresunspor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Giresunspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Giresunspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 29% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Giresunspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Başakşehir in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 0.92x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.95x) against Giresunspor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
29%
3.45
32%
3.10
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.29
Başakşehir xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.29 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Giresunspor's recent record stands at 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 11L across 36 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Giresunspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Giresunspor have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Giresunspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.39 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Giresunspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Giresunspor
1
Draws
3
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Başakşehir?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2023, when Giresunspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 50%, Başakşehir 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Giresunspor) and 50% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Giresunspor's games and 61% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Giresunspor's recent games and 50% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, as Giresunspor and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.29 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Başakşehir attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 39%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 42%, Başakşehir 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.