Giresunspor 2-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Giresunspor host Adana Demirspor at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Giresunspor at Çotanak Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Giresunspor at 1.40 PPG versus Adana Demirspor's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Giresunspor, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Giresunspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 50% versus Adana Demirspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 44% | Adana Demirspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.20 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.872 / defence 1.143 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.237. Data: 34 Giresunspor games / 34 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 36% | Draw 32% | Adana Demirspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Adana Demirspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Giresunspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Giresunspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 36% | Draw 32% | Adana Demirspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Giresunspor 1.20 / Adana Demirspor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.872 / def 1.143 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.794 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Giresunspor 2 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 36% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Giresunspor's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.15
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.12 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Giresunspor come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 7D 16L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 1.18 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Giresunspor's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.47 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 11W 7D 16L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.29 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Giresunspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2023, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 53%, Adana Demirspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Giresunspor) and 59% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 35% of games; Adana Demirspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Giresunspor's games and 59% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Giresunspor's recent games and 59% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Adana Demirspor 2-0 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.20 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 36% | Draw 32% | Adana Demirspor 32%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 44%, Adana Demirspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.18 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Giresunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.