Gaziantep FK 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadyumu this season: 7W 2D 0L from 9 home games — 2.56 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Gaziantep FK's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gaziantep FK 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 47% versus Fatih Karagümrük 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 47% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.85 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.288 / defence 1.063 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.897 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.105. Gaziantep FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Gaziantep FK games / 19 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 55% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 55% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.85 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.288 / def 1.063 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.897 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 55% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 1.29x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.90x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.09
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.91
1.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
31.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.05 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 6L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.42 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 7W 2D 0L from 9 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.37 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.56 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 0-3 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gaziantep FK) and 56% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Gaziantep FK's games and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.85 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.05 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 55% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 47%, Fatih Karagümrük 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.47 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.