Galatasaray 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 23 as Galatasaray welcome Trabzonspor to NEF Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Galatasaray — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Galatasaray's home record at NEF Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Galatasaray are significantly better at NEF Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Galatasaray's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Galatasaray, 0 for Trabzonspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Galatasaray in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 54% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 50% | Trabzonspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.02 xG and Trabzonspor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 0.887 / defence 1.256 | Trabzonspor attack 1.107 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.087. Data: 22 Galatasaray games / 22 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 25% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 2.08. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 50% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 25% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Galatasaray 1.02 / Trabzonspor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 0.887 / def 1.256 | Trabzonspor attack 1.107 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?
Galatasaray 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor part of?
Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 25% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Galatasaray and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Galatasaray 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 0W.
What form are Galatasaray and Trabzonspor in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (0.89) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Galatasaray's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
25%
4.06
28%
3.60
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.54
1.51
Trabzonspor xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.51 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Galatasaray come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.32 PPG from 22 outings (15W 6D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Galatasaray's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 2.36 points per game from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Galatasaray are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.77 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 15W 6D 1L in their last 22 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.55 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Galatasaray and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when Galatasaray won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Galatasaray's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Galatasaray
3
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 5, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Trabzonspor?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 54%, Trabzonspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Galatasaray) and 54% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Galatasaray's games and 64% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Galatasaray's recent games and 54% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Galatasaray 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Galatasaray 1-2 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.02 xG and Trabzonspor 1.51 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Trabzonspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 25% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 48%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 50%, Trabzonspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Galatasaray (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.