Göztepe 3-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Göztepe welcome Rizespor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Göztepe have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 2, Rizespor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 5.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–0 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 53% versus Rizespor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 45% | Rizespor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.26 xG and Rizespor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.939 / defence 0.667 | Rizespor attack 0.958 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.297. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.667 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Göztepe games / 53 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 37% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Rizespor 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 30% | Rizespor 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 37% | Rizespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Göztepe 1.26 / Rizespor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.939 / def 0.667 | Rizespor attack 0.958 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Rizespor xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Rizespor kick off?
Göztepe vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe 3 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Göztepe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Rizespor part of?
Göztepe vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 43% chance of winning, Rizespor a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Göztepe and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Göztepe 2W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.94) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
43%
2.34
37%
2.72
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.09
0.83
Rizespor xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.83 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 16D 15L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.26 PPG from 53 outings (19W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.55 PPG, Rizespor on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 14W 9D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.36 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 19W 10D 24L in their last 53 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Rizespor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.96 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rizespor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Rizespor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Göztepe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Göztepe
0
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Göztepe 3-1 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 46%, Rizespor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Göztepe) and 58% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rizespor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Göztepe's recent matches and 62% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Göztepe's recent games and 58% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Rizespor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Rizespor 3-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.26 xG and Rizespor 0.83 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.94 / defence 0.67 against Rizespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 43% | Draw 37% | Rizespor 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 45%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.55 PPG, Rizespor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.