Fenerbahçe 0-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Fenerbahçe welcome Başakşehir to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 5W 3D 2L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fenerbahçe 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fenerbahçe, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 77% and Başakşehir 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 59% | Başakşehir 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.30 xG and Başakşehir 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / defence 1.237 | Başakşehir attack 0.869 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.090. Data: 23 Fenerbahçe games / 22 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 39% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 33%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 39% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.30 / Başakşehir 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / def 1.237 | Başakşehir attack 0.869 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Başakşehir xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe 0 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 39% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.16) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.62
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.47
1.17
Başakşehir xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.17 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 9W 7D 6L from 22 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 8L across 22 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fenerbahçe on 1.55 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.41 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 10W 4D 8L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Başakşehir away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 1.91 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Başakşehir have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fenerbahçe at 73%, Başakşehir at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Fenerbahçe and 54% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Fenerbahçe's games and 64% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 54% of Başakşehir's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Başakşehir defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Fenerbahçe 0-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.30 xG and Başakşehir 1.17 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fenerbahçe fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.16 / defence 1.24 against Başakşehir attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 39% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 33%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 59%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 1.55 PPG, Başakşehir 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.