Fenerbahçe 1-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 10 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 5W 3D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Adana Demirspor are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fenerbahçe lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 68% and Adana Demirspor 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 58% | Adana Demirspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.76 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.203 / defence 1.178 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.082 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.097. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Fenerbahçe games / 19 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 46% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Adana Demirspor 3.23. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 67% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 10 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 46% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.76 / Adana Demirspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.203 / def 1.178 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.082 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 January 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 46% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.20) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.08x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.25
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.16
1.40
Adana Demirspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.40 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 9W 5D 5L from 19 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 5L across 19 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.58 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.00 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Fenerbahçe, 78% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fenerbahçe and 67% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fenerbahçe's games and 78% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Fenerbahçe 1-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.76 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.40 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.20 / defence 1.18 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 46% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 31%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 58%, Adana Demirspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 1.68 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.