Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Sivasspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.10 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Sivasspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 4–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sivasspor trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 64% and Sivasspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Sivasspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.836 / defence 0.805 | Sivasspor attack 1.148 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.264. Data: 47 Fatih Karagümrük games / 47 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 32% | Sivasspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Sivasspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Sivasspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 32% | Sivasspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 / Sivasspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.836 / def 0.805 | Sivasspor attack 1.148 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sivasspor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 38% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 2W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.16
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
Sivasspor xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.17 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 17D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.17 PPG from 47 outings (14W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.32 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (9W 2D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 15W 17D 15L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Sivasspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.39 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Sivasspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Fatih Karagümrük and 70% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 56% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 70% of Sivasspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Sivasspor 3-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.84 / defence 0.81 against Sivasspor attack 1.15 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 32% | Sivasspor 31%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Sivasspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.32 PPG, Sivasspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.