Fatih Karagümrük 1-4 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Süper Lig appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's away record: 2W 3D 2L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.60 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 53% versus Konyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 53% | Konyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.968 / defence 1.101 | Konyaspor attack 0.950 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.087. Data: 15 Fatih Karagümrük games / 15 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Konyaspor 43%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 / Konyaspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.968 / def 1.101 | Konyaspor attack 0.950 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Konyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 4 Konyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 38% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.97x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.95x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.32
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.39
1.14
Konyaspor xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.14 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 4D 5L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 7W 6D 2L from 15 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.80 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.53 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 7W 6D 2L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Konyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.71 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
4
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Konyaspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 29% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 43%; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 29% of games; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 43% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 29% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-4 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 32%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 53%, Konyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.