Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor encounter.

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Analysis

Hatayspor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 18 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Fatih Karagümrük's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fatih Karagümrük lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 65% versus Hatayspor 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fatih Karagümrük 65% | Hatayspor 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 xG and Hatayspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.976 / defence 0.953 | Hatayspor attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.378. Data: 40 Fatih Karagümrük games / 40 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Hatayspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Hatayspor 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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