Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Ankaragücü.

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Match Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük host Ankaragücü at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fatih Karagümrük at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ankaragücü stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 1.20 (Ankaragücü). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 Ankaragücü — a Fatih Karagümrük win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Ankaragücü in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 66% and Ankaragücü 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 68% | Ankaragücü 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 xG and Ankaragücü 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.067 / defence 0.964 | Ankaragücü attack 1.008 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.363. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 38 games and Ankaragücü's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 31% | Ankaragücü 28%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.49 | Draw 3.19 | Ankaragücü 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Ankaragücü's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 60% (last 10 home games) | Ankaragücü 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Fatih Karagümrük 38 games, Ankaragücü 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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