Eyüpspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gaziantep FK — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Eyüpspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Gaziantep FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.19 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.710 / defence 1.112 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.039 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.173. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Eyüpspor games / 66 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 38%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Gaziantep FK 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Eyüpspor 1.19 / Gaziantep FK 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.710 / def 1.112 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.039 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Gaziantep FK xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor 3 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 30% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (3 meetings): Eyüpspor 2W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
30%
3.37
33%
3.06
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.54
1.36
Gaziantep FK xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.36 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 21W 15D 30L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 21W 19D 26L from 66 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.18 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (13W 7D 13L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 6W 10D 17L from 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK in 61%.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 21W 15D 30L in their last 66 games (1.18 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 21W 19D 26L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.39 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 52%, Gaziantep FK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Eyüpspor and 70% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Eyüpspor's games and 67% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eyüpspor's matches and 70% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.19 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.11 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 38%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.18 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.