Eyüpspor 4-1 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Bodrum FK travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bodrum FK stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Süper Lig matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Bodrum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.44 xG and Bodrum FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Bodrum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.283. Data: 1 Eyüpspor games / 1 Bodrum FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 31%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Bodrum FK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Eyüpspor 1.44 / Bodrum FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Bodrum FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bodrum FK xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK?
Eyüpspor 4 - 1 Bodrum FK.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 40% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.51
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.70
1.25
Bodrum FK xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.25 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bodrum FK's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Bodrum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bodrum FK.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Bodrum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 2, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 0% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 0% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Bodrum FK 4-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.44 xG and Bodrum FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Bodrum FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 31%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 0%, Bodrum FK 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Eyüpspor scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bodrum FK scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.