Erzurumspor FK 1-3 Çorum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Çorum FK make the trip to Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu to face Erzurumspor FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Erzurumspor FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games (1.56 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzurumspor FK's home record at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.56 — Erzurumspor FK are significantly better at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Çorum FK have collected 1.44 PPG across 9 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Çorum FK have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.56 vs 1.44 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Erzurumspor FK — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Çorum FK — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 22% versus Çorum FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 44% | Çorum FK 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.46 xG and Çorum FK 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.754 / defence 0.988 | Çorum FK attack 1.219 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.225. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Erzurumspor FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Erzurumspor FK games / 9 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 37% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 38%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Çorum FK 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Çorum FK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Çorum FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Erzurumspor FK 0% | Çorum FK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 37% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.46 / Çorum FK 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.754 / def 0.988 | Çorum FK attack 1.219 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Çorum FK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK?
Erzurumspor FK 1 - 3 Çorum FK.
Where is Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 37% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Çorum FK (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Erzurumspor FK's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Çorum FK's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Çorum FK's attack (1.22x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
37%
2.68
25%
4.07
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.94
1.48
Çorum FK xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.48 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 4W 2D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Çorum FK's form line: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Erzurumspor FK against 1.44 for Çorum FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Erzurumspor FK have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Çorum FK have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Çorum FK away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 2.25 PPG; Çorum FK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
1
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, Çorum FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 1-3 Çorum FK.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK?
Çorum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Erzurumspor FK) and 50% (Çorum FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Erzurumspor FK) and 75% (Çorum FK).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 50% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 75% of Çorum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Çorum FK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Erzurumspor FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Çorum FK beat Erzurumspor FK 1-3 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzurumspor FK 1.46 xG and Çorum FK 1.48 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Çorum FK outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzurumspor FK attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Çorum FK attack 1.22 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzurumspor FK 37% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 38%, with Çorum FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzurumspor FK 44%, Çorum FK 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzurumspor FK's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Çorum FK's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Erzurumspor FK 1.56 PPG, Çorum FK 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Çorum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Erzurumspor FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Çorum FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.