Bodrum FK 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodrum FK host Alanyaspor at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodrum FK — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodrum FK have posted 2W 0D 3L at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Alanyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bodrum FK at 1.00 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 30% versus Alanyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bodrum FK 30% | Alanyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Alanyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.776 / defence 1.022 | Alanyaspor attack 0.872 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.343. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Bodrum FK games / 48 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 40% | Alanyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Bodrum FK 1.08 / Alanyaspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.776 / def 1.022 | Alanyaspor attack 0.872 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Bodrum FK 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 32% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
32%
3.15
31%
3.23
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Alanyaspor xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.20 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Bodrum FK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 6L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bodrum FK on 1.00 PPG, Alanyaspor on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodrum FK have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bodrum FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 0.90 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Alanyaspor 0-1 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 50%, Alanyaspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bodrum FK) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 50% of games; Alanyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 25% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodrum FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, as Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Alanyaspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodrum FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 30%, Alanyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG, Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.