Beşiktaş 3-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 4 as Beşiktaş welcome Sivasspor to Vodafone Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş at Vodafone Park this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beşiktaş at 1.90 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Sivasspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 61% and Sivasspor 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 54% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.97 xG and Sivasspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.163 / defence 0.880 | Sivasspor attack 0.941 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.260. Data: 41 Beşiktaş games / 41 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Sivasspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Beşiktaş 1.97 / Sivasspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.163 / def 0.880 | Sivasspor attack 0.941 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sivasspor xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 August 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 59% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.16) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.63
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.01
1.04
Sivasspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
36.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.04 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 17W 15D 9L from 41 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 13L across 41 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.61 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.32 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 17W 15D 9L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Sivasspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.95 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Sivasspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 60%, Sivasspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beşiktaş and 60% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 65% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 60% of Sivasspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 3-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.97 xG and Sivasspor 1.04 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Sivasspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 20%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 54%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.61 PPG, Sivasspor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.