Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Beşiktaş take on Göztepe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Göztepe travel to Tupras Stadium to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tupras Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Göztepe — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG, Göztepe 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 2 for Göztepe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 66% versus Göztepe 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 52% | Göztepe 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.07 xG and Göztepe 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.080 / defence 0.999 | Göztepe attack 0.871 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.289. Göztepe's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Beşiktaş games / 58 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 37% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Göztepe 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Beşiktaş 80% | Göztepe 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 37% | Göztepe 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Beşiktaş 1.07 / Göztepe 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.080 / def 0.999 | Göztepe attack 0.871 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Göztepe xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Beşiktaş 4 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 30% chance of winning, Göztepe a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beşiktaş and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Göztepe (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
37%
2.72
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Göztepe xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.12 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 18D 12L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.57 PPG from 58 outings (24W 19D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.76 PPG, Göztepe on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beşiktaş's home form reads 17W 5D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 28W 18D 12L in their last 58 games (1.76 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 24W 19D 15L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Göztepe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.93 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Göztepe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Göztepe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 72%, Göztepe at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Beşiktaş) and 45% (Göztepe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Beşiktaş's games and 59% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Beşiktaş's matches and 45% of Göztepe's.
Do Beşiktaş and Göztepe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Göztepe 4-0 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.07 xG and Göztepe 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Göztepe attack 0.87 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 37% | Göztepe 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 52%, Göztepe 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Göztepe's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.76 PPG, Göztepe 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.