Başakşehir 3-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.30 for Sivasspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Başakşehir edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Başakşehir 1–1 Sivasspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 35% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Sivasspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.108 / defence 0.961 | Sivasspor attack 0.986 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.256. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 51 games and Sivasspor's last 51.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.83 | Draw 4.44 | Sivasspor 4.36. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Başakşehir 1.94 / Sivasspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.108 / def 0.961 | Sivasspor attack 0.986 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sivasspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Başakşehir and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.99x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 51 games and Sivasspor's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.44
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.13
1.19
Sivasspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.19 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 11D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.16 PPG from 51 outings (15W 14D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.16 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 15W 3D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.28 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Sivasspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.92 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Başakşehir have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 6, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2025: Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 32%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Başakşehir) and 68% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sivasspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Sivasspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Başakşehir's matches and 68% of Sivasspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 92% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 3-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 23%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Sivasspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.51 PPG, Sivasspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.