Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Konyaspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Başakşehir, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 49% versus Konyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 49% | Konyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.53 xG and Konyaspor 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.030 / defence 0.935 | Konyaspor attack 1.150 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.427. Data: 57 Başakşehir games / 57 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 38% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 20% | Konyaspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 38% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Başakşehir 1.53 / Konyaspor 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.030 / def 0.935 | Konyaspor attack 1.150 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Konyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 38% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.04
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.07
1.53
Konyaspor xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.53 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 30W 12D 15L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 26W 17D 14L from 57 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.79 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (19W 3D 6L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 10W 9D 9L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.58 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Konyaspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 30W 12D 15L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 26W 17D 14L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.14 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 39%, Konyaspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Başakşehir) and 61% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Başakşehir's games and 71% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Başakşehir's matches and 61% of Konyaspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.53 xG and Konyaspor 1.53 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Konyaspor attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 38% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 38%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 49%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.79 PPG, Konyaspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.