Başakşehir 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Başakşehir at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.40 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 3, Konyaspor 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Başakşehir 2–3 Konyaspor — a Konyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 46% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 46% | Konyaspor 42%). Note also that Konyaspor surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Başakşehir recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.984 / defence 0.957 | Konyaspor attack 0.884 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.216. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 65 games and Konyaspor's last 66.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.98 | Draw 3.80 | Konyaspor 4.29. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 30% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Başakşehir 1.62 / Konyaspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.984 / def 0.957 | Konyaspor attack 0.884 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Konyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 50% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 65 games and Konyaspor's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.80
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.65
1.03
Konyaspor xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
21.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.03 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 29W 13D 23L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 18W 20D 27L from 65 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 33 home games (17W 7D 9L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 11D 16L from their last 33 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Current Season
Başakşehir (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 29W 13D 23L in their last 65 games (1.54 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 18W 20D 27L in their last 65 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.76 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 46%, Konyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 42% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Konyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 58% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 42% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 50% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 23%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 46%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.