Başakşehir 0-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 22). Kick-off is Wednesday 24 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Başakşehir 0–4 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 39% versus Fenerbahçe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Fenerbahçe 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.155 / defence 0.992 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.558 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.229. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.714, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Başakşehir's projected output down. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.558, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 57 games and Fenerbahçe's last 57.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 23% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 4.39 | Draw 3.75 | Fenerbahçe 1.98. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.24 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 23% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Başakşehir 1.24 / Fenerbahçe 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.155 / def 0.992 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.558 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 23% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 57 games and Fenerbahçe's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
23%
4.39
27%
3.75
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.14
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
3%
29.38
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.90 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 25W 14D 18L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 42W 8D 7L across 57 games — 2.35 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 17W 4D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 21W 4D 3L across their last 28 away games, a 2.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.54 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 42W 8D 7L in their last 57 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.96 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-0 Başakşehir.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 36%, Fenerbahçe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 61% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 61% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.56 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 23% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Fenerbahçe 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.