Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (87%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Eyüpspor meet at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 7W 2D 1L at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Başakşehir's favour (1.40 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Başakşehir, 0 for Eyüpspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Eyüpspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 61% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 3.64 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.423 / defence 0.982 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — their λ of 3.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Başakşehir games / 44 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 87% | Draw 8% | Eyüpspor 4%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.15 | Draw 12.50 | Eyüpspor 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (87%) — a 83pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 4.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 87% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.46 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Eyüpspor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 87% | Draw 8% | Eyüpspor 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 54% | xG Başakşehir 3.64 / Eyüpspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.423 / def 0.982 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.64
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
54%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 87% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 4% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Başakşehir and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 2 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.42x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 3.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.66x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (8.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
87%
1.14
8%
12.21
4%
22.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.64
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
4.46
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
1.14
87%
Home win
12.21
8%
Draw
22.47
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
3%
38.09
Win to Nil
39%
2.59
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.64 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.82 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 4.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 20W 11D 13L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor's form line: 9W 9D 26L from 44 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eyüpspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L).
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 5D 14L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Eyüpspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.91 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 59%, Eyüpspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Başakşehir) and 50% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 41% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Başakşehir's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.