Başakşehir 0-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Başakşehir welcome Adana Demirspor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.30 (Adana Demirspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 3–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Adana Demirspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Adana Demirspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.180 / defence 0.962 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.999 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.260. Data: 53 Başakşehir games / 53 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Adana Demirspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Başakşehir 2.02 / Adana Demirspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.180 / def 0.962 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.999 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.18x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.19
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.23
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
3%
35.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.21 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 23W 12D 18L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 27W 15D 11L from 53 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.53 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (16W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 10D 8L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 15D 11L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.96 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 35%, Adana Demirspor 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 58% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 35% of Başakşehir's games and 77% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 58% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 55% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Adana Demirspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.53 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.