Antalyaspor 1-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Sivasspor at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sivasspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.50 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 2, Sivasspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Sivasspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Sivasspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.97 xG and Sivasspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.106 / defence 0.929 | Sivasspor attack 0.975 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.385. Data: 66 Antalyaspor games / 67 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 54% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Sivasspor 4.17. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 54% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Antalyaspor 1.97 / Sivasspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.106 / def 0.929 | Sivasspor attack 0.975 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sivasspor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 54% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Antalyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.58
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.22
1.25
Sivasspor xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
3%
29.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.25 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 25W 17D 24L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 23W 19D 24L from 66 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.39 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.79 PPG from 33 outings (17W 8D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 12W 5D 16L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 25W 17D 24L in their last 66 games (1.39 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.79 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 64%, Sivasspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Antalyaspor and 64% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Antalyaspor's games and 58% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Antalyaspor's matches and 64% of Sivasspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.97 xG and Sivasspor 1.25 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Sivasspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 54% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Sivasspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.39 PPG, Sivasspor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.