Ankaragücü 1-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ankaragücü face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ankaragücü welcome Rizespor to Eryaman Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 15). Kick-off is Monday 11 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ankaragücü stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Rizespor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ankaragücü) versus 1.40 (Rizespor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 64% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 50% | Rizespor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.63 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.850 / defence 0.983 | Rizespor attack 0.761 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.258. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ankaragücü's projected output up. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 50 games and Rizespor's last 14.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 53% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 1.88 | Draw 3.92 | Rizespor 4.70. Ankaragücü hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ankaragücü as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 57% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 11 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 53% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Ankaragücü 1.63 / Rizespor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.850 / def 0.983 | Rizespor attack 0.761 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rizespor xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Ankaragücü vs Rizespor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 11 December 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Rizespor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Rizespor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 53% chance of winning, Rizespor a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ankaragücü and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Ankaragücü vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.85) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ankaragücü's last 50 games and Rizespor's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.92
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.57
0.94
Rizespor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
24.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ankaragücü vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 0.94 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 5L across 14 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.21 PPG, Rizespor on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 2W 3D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across their last 7 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rizespor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Ankaragücü (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ankaragücü
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Ankaragücü vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Ankaragücü and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Rizespor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.29 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Rizespor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Ankaragücü vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Rizespor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ankaragücü have won 0, Rizespor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: Rizespor 2-2 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 43%, Rizespor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ankaragücü) and 71% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 29% of games; Rizespor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ankaragücü and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 57% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ankaragücü and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 71% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 86% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Rizespor finished level at 1-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.63 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Rizespor attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 53% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 21%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 50%, Rizespor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.21 PPG, Rizespor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.