Ankaragücü 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ankaragücü face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü in Süper Lig (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ankaragücü stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ankaragücü's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ankaragücü) versus 1.40 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ankaragücü, 0 for Konyaspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Jan 2023, ended Ankaragücü 1–0 Konyaspor — a Ankaragücü win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 63% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 54% | Konyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.00 xG and Konyaspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.843 / defence 0.962 | Konyaspor attack 1.038 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.326. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 41 games and Konyaspor's last 41.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 24% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 4.12 | Draw 2.82 | Konyaspor 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 60% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 6 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 24% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Ankaragücü 1.00 / Konyaspor 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.843 / def 0.962 | Konyaspor attack 1.038 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Konyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 6) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 24% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ankaragücü and Konyaspor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.84) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ankaragücü's last 41 games and Konyaspor's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
24%
4.12
36%
2.82
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.32
1.32
Konyaspor xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
15.49
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.32 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ankaragücü come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 8D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.44 PPG from 41 outings (14W 17D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.15 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ankaragücü's home form reads 6W 5D 9L across their last 20 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 20 away games (8W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
Ankaragücü (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ankaragücü
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Ankaragücü and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 17D 10L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.15 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Konyaspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ankaragücü have won 1, Konyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2024: Konyaspor 1-0 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 65%, Konyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Ankaragücü) and 60% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 35%; Ankaragücü have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ankaragücü and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ankaragücü's games and 50% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ankaragücü and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Ankaragücü's matches and 60% of Konyaspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 67% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.00 xG and Konyaspor 1.32 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Konyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 24% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 40%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 54%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.15 PPG, Konyaspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.