Ankaragücü 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Eryaman Stadyumu to face Ankaragücü in Süper Lig (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ankaragücü's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ankaragücü are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Alanyaspor arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Jan 2024, ended Ankaragücü 1–1 Alanyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ankaragücü half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 63% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 50% | Alanyaspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.14 xG and Alanyaspor 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.918 / defence 0.906 | Alanyaspor attack 1.139 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.233. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 70 games and Alanyaspor's last 70.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 31% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.19 | Draw 3.22 | Alanyaspor 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 50% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 31% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ankaragücü 1.14 / Alanyaspor 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.918 / def 0.906 | Alanyaspor attack 1.139 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 31% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.14x) against Ankaragücü's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Ankaragücü's last 70 games and Alanyaspor's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.22
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.41
1.27
Alanyaspor xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.27 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ankaragücü come into this having played 70 games, going 20W 20D 30L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.27 PPG from 70 outings (23W 20D 27L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.27 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ankaragücü's home form reads 12W 11D 12L across their last 35 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 35 away games (8W 10D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.47 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Ankaragücü (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 20W 20D 30L in their last 70 games (1.14 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 23W 20D 27L in their last 70 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Alanyaspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.34 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ankaragücü have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2024: Ankaragücü 1-1 Alanyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 57%, Alanyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Ankaragücü) and 63% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 31% of games; Alanyaspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ankaragücü's games and 54% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Ankaragücü's matches and 63% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 74% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.14 xG and Alanyaspor 1.27 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Alanyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.82, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 31% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 38%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 50%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.14 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.