Alanyaspor 5-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor meet at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trabzonspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Alanyaspor 0W, Trabzonspor 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–4 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 61% and Trabzonspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 59% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.99 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.091 / defence 0.909 | Trabzonspor attack 0.996 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.378. Data: 55 Alanyaspor games / 54 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 4.35. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 1.99 / Trabzonspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.091 / def 0.909 | Trabzonspor attack 0.996 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Alanyaspor 5 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 54% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.09x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.00x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.44
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.23
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
3%
31.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.25 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 13D 18L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.04 PPG from 54 outings (31W 17D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.81 points per game from 27 outings (14W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 63%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 31W 17D 6L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.70 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Alanyaspor, 70% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Alanyaspor) and 59% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Alanyaspor's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Alanyaspor's matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Trabzonspor 5-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.99 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Trabzonspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 23%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 59%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.