Alanyaspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 47%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Rizespor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rizespor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rizespor in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Rizespor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 45% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Rizespor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.69 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / defence 1.159 | Rizespor attack 0.838 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.225. Data: 56 Alanyaspor games / 20 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 4.00. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Rizespor 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Alanyaspor 1.69 / Rizespor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / def 1.159 | Rizespor attack 0.838 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rizespor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Rizespor a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Alanyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Rizespor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.60
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.88
1.19
Rizespor xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.19 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 7D 8L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.25 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Rizespor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.11 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rizespor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alanyaspor at 67%, Rizespor at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Alanyaspor and 67% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Rizespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Alanyaspor's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.69 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Rizespor attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 25%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Rizespor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.