Alanyaspor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Antalyaspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Alanyaspor's games and 60% of Antalyaspor's (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Antalyaspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Jan 2024, ended Alanyaspor 0–0 Antalyaspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 62% | Antalyaspor 47%). Note also that Antalyaspor surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.21 xG and Antalyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.181 / defence 1.078 | Antalyaspor attack 0.861 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.246. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alanyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 73 games and Antalyaspor's last 73.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.67 | Draw 4.48 | Antalyaspor 5.66. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 38 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Alanyaspor 2.21 / Antalyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.181 / def 1.078 | Antalyaspor attack 0.861 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 May 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 38) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 73 games and Antalyaspor's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.48
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.37
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
2%
51.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.16 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 23W 23D 27L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 30L across 73 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.26 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 15W 11D 10L from their last 36 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 7W 9D 20L across their last 36 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 23W 23D 27L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 23W 20D 30L in their last 73 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 3-0 Alanyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
4
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 56%, Antalyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Alanyaspor) and 42% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 72% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.21 xG and Antalyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 18%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 62%, Antalyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.