Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 10:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Adana Demirspor stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

At home, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Adana Demirspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 2–2 Kasımpaşa — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 59% and Kasımpaşa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Adana Demirspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.19 xG and Kasımpaşa 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.632 / defence 1.412 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.227 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.227. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.632 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.227, which lifts their away xG to 2.13. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.412 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kasımpaşa's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 58 games and Kasımpaşa's last 58.

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 19% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 57%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 5.30 | Draw 4.18 | Kasımpaşa 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.19 / 2.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 away games).

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