Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 51%, yet in-form Fatih Karagümrük provide a compelling counter-argument — this Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 28). Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Adana Demirspor have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Fatih Karagümrük arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Adana Demirspor, 2 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended Adana Demirspor 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük — a Fatih Karagümrük win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 62% and Fatih Karagümrük 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 59%). Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Adana Demirspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.034 / defence 1.120 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.746 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.170. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 63 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 63.

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.98 | Draw 3.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.13. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 60% (last 10 away games).

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