Adana Demirspor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Adana Demirspor, 1.20 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Adana Demirspor 2W, Antalyaspor 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 3–0 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 58% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 55% | Antalyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Antalyaspor 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.213 / defence 0.743 | Antalyaspor attack 0.736 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.266. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Adana Demirspor games / 62 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Antalyaspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 60% | Antalyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 43% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.91 / Antalyaspor 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.213 / def 0.743 | Antalyaspor attack 0.736 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Antalyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 66% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.74x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.77
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.60
0.69
Antalyaspor xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
2%
53.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.69 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 62 games, going 26W 19D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.40 PPG from 62 outings (24W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.40 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 16W 9D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 19D 17L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.90 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 50%, Antalyaspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Adana Demirspor) and 47% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 43% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 47% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Antalyaspor 0.69 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.74 against Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 13%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 55%, Antalyaspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.56 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.