Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 45%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor meet at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Yeni Malatyaspor (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antalyaspor are 0.70 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yeni Malatyaspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 38% versus Antalyaspor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 38% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.37 xG and Antalyaspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.858 / defence 1.643 | Antalyaspor attack 0.538 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.122. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 25 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Antalyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Antalyaspor 3.85. Yeni Malatyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yeni Malatyaspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Yeni Malatyaspor 70% | Antalyaspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Antalyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.37 / Antalyaspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.858 / def 1.643 | Antalyaspor attack 0.538 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 1 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Yeni Malatyaspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.54x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.45
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.36
0.99
Antalyaspor xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0.99 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yeni Malatyaspor come into this having played 24 games, going 4W 4D 16L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Yeni Malatyaspor's home form reads 2W 3D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.50 points per game from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 4D 16L in their last 24 games (0.67 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Yeni Malatyaspor's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 67%, Antalyaspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 42% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent matches and 33% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.37 xG and Antalyaspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.64 against Antalyaspor attack 0.54 / defence 1.38, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Antalyaspor 26%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 38%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.