Trabzonspor 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Trabzonspor's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sivasspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Trabzonspor 1W, Sivasspor 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 65% and Sivasspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.936 / defence 0.797 | Sivasspor attack 1.025 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.304. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Trabzonspor games / 48 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 46% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sivasspor 3.57. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 70% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 46% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Trabzonspor 1.45 / Sivasspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.936 / def 0.797 | Sivasspor attack 1.025 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sivasspor xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 46% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Trabzonspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (1.02x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.80
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
Sivasspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.07 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trabzonspor come into this having played 48 games, going 28W 15D 5L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (16W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 9D 0L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 65%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 28W 15D 5L in their last 48 games (2.06 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 16W 16D 16L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.22 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 61%, Sivasspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Trabzonspor) and 61% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Trabzonspor's games and 65% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 61% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Sivasspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 46% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 28%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.