Trabzonspor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Antalyaspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.70 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 0, Antalyaspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–5 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 60% versus Antalyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Antalyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.77 xG and Antalyaspor 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.147 / defence 0.545 | Antalyaspor attack 0.810 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.414. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.545 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Trabzonspor games / 57 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Antalyaspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 20% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 39% | xG Trabzonspor 1.77 / Antalyaspor 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.147 / def 0.545 | Antalyaspor attack 0.810 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Antalyaspor xG
39%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 65% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.15x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
65%
1.55
23%
4.27
12%
8.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.39
0.62
Antalyaspor xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
8.26
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
2%
48.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.62 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 57 games, going 32W 17D 8L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.40 PPG from 57 outings (22W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 18W 9D 0L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 32W 17D 8L in their last 57 games (1.98 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 48%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Trabzonspor) and 48% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 48% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.77 xG and Antalyaspor 0.62 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.15 / defence 0.55 against Antalyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 12%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Antalyaspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.