Trabzonspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor meet at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 2D 0L across 6 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 6 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.33 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 67% versus Alanyaspor 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 67% | Alanyaspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.54 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.079 / defence 1.263 | Alanyaspor attack 0.767 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.025. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Trabzonspor games / 6 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 4.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 67% | Alanyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Trabzonspor 1.54 / Alanyaspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.079 / def 1.263 | Alanyaspor attack 0.767 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 50% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.08x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.91
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.54
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.99 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 2D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Trabzonspor against 2.00 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 17%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 games (2.33 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Have Trabzonspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 67%, Alanyaspor 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Trabzonspor) and 33% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 17% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 33% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, as Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.54 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.26 against Alanyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 67%, Alanyaspor 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 2.33 PPG, Alanyaspor 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.