İstanbulspor 0-4 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as İstanbulspor welcome Rizespor to Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, İstanbulspor stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
İstanbulspor at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rizespor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: İstanbulspor 0.60 PPG, Rizespor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for İstanbulspor, 1 for Rizespor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 57% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 47% | Rizespor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.63 xG and Rizespor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.707 / defence 1.354 | Rizespor attack 0.776 / defence 1.489. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.160. İstanbulspor's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.489 — this is suppressing İstanbulspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 İstanbulspor games / 30 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 45% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 27%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 3.70. İstanbulspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates İstanbulspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 70% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 45% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG İstanbulspor 1.63 / Rizespor 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.707 / def 1.354 | Rizespor attack 0.776 / def 1.489 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rizespor xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Rizespor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Rizespor?
İstanbulspor 0 - 4 Rizespor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Rizespor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 45% chance of winning, Rizespor a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both İstanbulspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): İstanbulspor 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Rizespor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from İstanbulspor's attack rating (0.71) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.57
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.22
Rizespor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.22 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 3W 7D 20L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 12W 6D 12L from 30 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Rizespor are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 0.57 PPG from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 3D 9L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
The Goals Picture
İstanbulspor are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.20 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 3W 7D 20L in their last 30 games (0.53 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Rizespor away?
Rizespor's away record (0.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.57 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.64 PPG.
Have İstanbulspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
İstanbulspor have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Rizespor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between İstanbulspor and Rizespor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Rizespor?
From 2 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 0, Rizespor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when İstanbulspor 0-4 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 64%, Rizespor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for İstanbulspor and 71% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 36% of games; Rizespor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of İstanbulspor's games and 57% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of İstanbulspor's matches and 71% of Rizespor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 0-4 hammering of İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat İstanbulspor 0-4 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.63 xG and Rizespor 1.22 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. İstanbulspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rizespor outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.35 against Rizespor attack 0.78 / defence 1.49, drawn from 66/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 45% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 27%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 47%, Rizespor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rizespor's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.53. Form held, and they took the win. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.