Sivasspor 3-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu plays host to Sivasspor versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sivasspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 1W 5D 4L at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Trabzonspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2023, ended 4–1 with Sivasspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 55% | Trabzonspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 0.97 xG and Trabzonspor 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.719 / defence 0.987 | Trabzonspor attack 1.165 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.185. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Sivasspor games / 47 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 25% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Trabzonspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sivasspor 70% | Trabzonspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 25% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sivasspor 0.97 / Trabzonspor 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.719 / def 0.987 | Trabzonspor attack 1.165 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Trabzonspor xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Sivasspor 3 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 25% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sivasspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.72) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.17x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
25%
4.01
31%
3.20
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.34
1.36
Trabzonspor xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.36 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 12D 21L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 23W 7D 17L from 47 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (5W 10D 8L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 23W 7D 17L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.09 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
3
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Sivasspor, 70% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sivasspor) and 70% (Trabzonspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sivasspor's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sivasspor's recent games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, as Sivasspor and Trabzonspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 0.97 xG and Trabzonspor 1.36 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 25% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 44%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 55%, Trabzonspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.