Sivasspor 1-1 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
İstanbulspor make the trip to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's home record at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
İstanbulspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. İstanbulspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Sivasspor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of İstanbulspor's 0.75 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sivasspor 50% | İstanbulspor 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sivasspor 50% | İstanbulspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 0.97 xG and İstanbulspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.788 / defence 0.861 | İstanbulspor attack 0.729 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.218. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Sivasspor games / 4 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 33% | İstanbulspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | İstanbulspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — İstanbulspor's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | İstanbulspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 33% | İstanbulspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Sivasspor 0.97 / İstanbulspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.788 / def 0.861 | İstanbulspor attack 0.729 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
İstanbulspor xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 İstanbulspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 39% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sivasspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and İstanbulspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and İstanbulspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.79x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — İstanbulspor's attack (0.73x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 43/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
39%
2.57
33%
2.99
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
1.73
0.77
İstanbulspor xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 13.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.77 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sivasspor come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, İstanbulspor sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for İstanbulspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Sivasspor against 0.75 for İstanbulspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 0.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: İstanbulspor in 0%.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
İstanbulspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sivasspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: İstanbulspor won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
1
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-3 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and İstanbulspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Sivasspor) and 0% (İstanbulspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sivasspor) and 25% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor have failed to score in 50% of games; İstanbulspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 0% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sivasspor's recent games and 25% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and İstanbulspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Sivasspor and İstanbulspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 0.97 xG and İstanbulspor 0.77 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.86 against İstanbulspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 39% | Draw 33% | İstanbulspor 28%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 50%, İstanbulspor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 0.50 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.