Sivasspor 1-0 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Galatasaray fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Galatasaray at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.60 PPG, Galatasaray 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Galatasaray in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 60% and Galatasaray 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 47% | Galatasaray 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Galatasaray 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.122 / defence 0.966 | Galatasaray attack 0.805 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.154. Data: 15 Sivasspor games / 15 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 21%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Galatasaray 4.76. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 50% | Galatasaray 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Sivasspor 1.56 / Galatasaray 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.122 / def 0.966 | Galatasaray attack 0.805 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Galatasaray xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Sivasspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Galatasaray.
Where is Sivasspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Sivasspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 52% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sivasspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Galatasaray?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Galatasaray in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Galatasaray (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.12x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.65
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.46
0.90
Galatasaray xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
22.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.90 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 7D 4L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray's form line: 6W 5D 4L from 15 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.27 PPG, Galatasaray on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (2W 5D 1L).
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Galatasaray in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.38 PPG; Galatasaray away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Galatasaray won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
1
Draws
5
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Galatasaray?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Galatasaray have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Galatasaray 4-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 50%, Galatasaray 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sivasspor) and 62% (Galatasaray). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sivasspor's games and 62% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sivasspor's matches and 62% of Galatasaray's.
Do Sivasspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Galatasaray 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Galatasaray 1-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Galatasaray 0.90 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galatasaray landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Galatasaray attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 52% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 21%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 47%, Galatasaray 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Galatasaray's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.27 PPG, Galatasaray 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.