Sivasspor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 3 as Sivasspor welcome Antalyaspor to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sivasspor) versus 0.90 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Sivasspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Antalyaspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 58% | Antalyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.25 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.959 / defence 0.952 | Antalyaspor attack 0.734 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.362. Data: 38 Sivasspor games / 38 Antalyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Antalyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 70% | Antalyaspor 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Sivasspor 1.25 / Antalyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.959 / def 0.952 | Antalyaspor attack 0.734 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 39% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sivasspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.96) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.74
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.20
0.95
Antalyaspor xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.95 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 9D 17L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor's form line: 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.18 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 5D 11L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.21 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
2
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 68%, Antalyaspor 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Sivasspor and 26% for Antalyaspor.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 37% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sivasspor's recent games and 26% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.25 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Antalyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 39% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 58%, Antalyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.18 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.