Sivasspor 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Alanyaspor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sivasspor, 1.20 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Sivasspor, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Alanyaspor — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Sivasspor winning.
The historical record gives Sivasspor a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Alanyaspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.47 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.007 / defence 0.897 | Alanyaspor attack 0.962 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.159. Data: 64 Sivasspor games / 64 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 4.35. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 50% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Sivasspor 1.47 / Alanyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.007 / def 0.897 | Alanyaspor attack 0.962 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 45% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sivasspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Sivasspor 4W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.96x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.19
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.00
Alanyaspor xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.00 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 20W 19D 25L from 64 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 20D 26L across 64 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.16 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 9W 14D 8L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 4W 10D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 18W 20D 26L in their last 64 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
2
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Alanyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sivasspor) and 61% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 55% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sivasspor's recent games and 61% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Sivasspor 1-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.47 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Alanyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.